Stanford, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

156
FXUS66 KMTR 240951
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
251 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Mostly quiet pattern with subtle changes ongoing through the
weekend. Warmup on the way through next week with above average
temperatures likely by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Upper level trough exiting the region today as high pressure builds
behind. Evidence of large scale subsidence already in place as the
depth of the marine layer inversion has decreased compared to 24
hours ago. This trend will likely continue, and stratus coverage
will probably end up lasting through the day today along favored NW
flow coastal areas (e.g., Point Reyes, SF Peninsula to Davenport,
Monterey Peninsula region) thanks to good moisture advection and an
onshore gradient. Afternoon winds very similar to yesterday with
gusts to 25 mph possible along the coast and NW-SE valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Very subtle pattern continues through to next week where we really
don`t see too much notable change outside of cloud cover and slight
variations in daily high temps. A deep upper low centered over the
Gulf of Alaska is progged to remain in place through the extended
and provide a few short wavelength troughs that sort of dampen our
upper level ridge a bit. This acts to moderate temperatures through
much of next week with a stout northwest flow regime persisting. By
the end of next week, ridging over the western US builds and, in
laymen`s terms, essentially starts to out match the ability of the
Gulf of Alaska low to dampen the pattern and moderate our temps. The
result will be increasing daytime highs into next weekend, resulting
in moderate HeatRisk beginning to encroach on interior areas. This
change is advertised with high confidence based on ensemble guidance
and cluster analysis. A rather interesting pattern is also being
advertised in the model guidance, though more uncertain. A cut-off
low meandering around SoCal and making its way up the coast by the
beginning of June. If this were to actually play out we could be
looking at a period of offshore winds on the north side of the low.
However, guidance has continued to indicate a decent moisture
profile through the column with this system, so the current forecast
actually doesn`t have too much in the way of critically dry
conditions. The situation regarding the cut off low is advertised
with low confidence and should be watched closely over the coming
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Stratus ceilings vary from IFR to MVFR and a few patches of fog
/LIFR-IFR/ may also develop through daybreak. Partial clearing to
the immediate coastline today will take place under diurnal mixing
then stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Sunday
morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus /MVFR/ until 19z today then VFR with
gusty west wind to 25 knots during the afternoon to mid evening.
MVFR stratus ceiling redevelops tonight and prevails through much
of Sunday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR-IFR/ until later this
morning, MVFR-VFR during the afternoon and early evening, then
stratus /MVFR-IFR/ redevelops this evening and prevails through
much of Sunday morning. Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots except 10 to
20 knots during the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Gusty northwest winds will continue through Memorial Day weekend.
Expect hazardous marine conditions across the waters through the
weekend and early into next as rough and hazardous seas linger.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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